CSC/ECE 506 Spring 2012/1b ap

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Moore's Law

This graph shows how Moore's Law has held up since 1970.

Moore's Law is a theory that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double approximately every two years. Gordon E. Moore, co-founder of Intel, first mentioned this trend in a 1965 article in 'Electronics', "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits." showing that this trend had occurred from year 1958 to 1965. And thus, the law is named after him. Moore's Law is still used to this day to set goals in the industry. Another Intel Executive, David House, modified the law to say that computer performance would double every eighteen months due to the increase in transistor count and speed.

There is some disagreement as to when Moore's Law will no longer hold. These opinions are discussed in following sections.

Various Opinions

Hold until 2015

Hold indefinitely

No longer holds

Assumptions Behind Opinions

Hold until 2015

Hold indefinitely

No longer holds

Law Holding at Particular Time

Why the difference in opinion?

Other Interpretations