CSC/ECE 506 Spring 2012/1b ps - Revision history

Vgumash at 07:07, 4 February 2013

2013-02-04T07:07:59Z

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	== Historic Context ==		== Historic Context ==

	According to David C. Brock in Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation:		According to David C. Brock in Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation: "By 1960 miniaturization was a fundamental issue for semiconductor technology and its industry. It had become, moreover, a central factor in the semiconductor community's discussions surrounding the new integrated circuits that had been touted in 1959 by Texas Instrucments as the first realization of the "monolothic" circuit ideal." .<ref>Brock, David C. ''Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Chemical Heritage Foundation, 2006, p. 26.</ref> Two ideas are most striking about this statement: The focus on miniaturization and the concept of the "monolothic" circuit ideal. In the early 1960s, the semi-conductor industry was gravitating towards building [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] on wafers of silicon versus discrete transistors for use as components in electronic devices. The arguments presented were largely those based on cost reduction. Integrated or monolothic circuits were cheaper to produce than devices based on connected discrete transistors.

	"By 1960 miniaturization was a fundamental issue for semiconductor technology and its industry. It had become, moreover, a central factor in the semiconductor community's discussions surrounding the new integrated circuits that had been touted in 1959 by Texas Instrucments as the first realization of the "monolothic" circuit ideal." .<ref>Brock, David C. ''Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Chemical Heritage Foundation, 2006, p. 26.</ref>

	Two ideas are most striking about this statement: The focus on miniaturization and the concept of the "monolothic" circuit ideal.

	In the early 1960s, the semi-conductor industry was gravitating towards building [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] on wafers of silicon versus discrete transistors for use as components in electronic devices. The arguments presented were largely those based on cost reduction. Integrated or monolothic circuits were cheaper to produce than devices based on connected discrete transistors.

	Among the seminal presentations of the time predating Moore's publication of Moore's Law is C. Harry Knowles (manager for Westinghouse's molecular electronics division). Knowles addressed two critical ideas that helps put Moore's Law into proper context:		Among the seminal presentations of the time predating Moore's publication of Moore's Law is C. Harry Knowles (manager for Westinghouse's molecular electronics division). Knowles addressed two critical ideas that helps put Moore's Law into proper context:

Psamoue: /* References */

2012-02-07T03:32:05Z

References

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	== References ==		== References ==
	*Brock, David C. (2006). "Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation" ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.		*Brock, David C. (2006). Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.

	==Notes==		==Notes==

Psamoue at 03:31, 7 February 2012

2012-02-07T03:31:32Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 03:31, 7 February 2012
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	== Historic Context ==		== Historic Context ==

	According to David C. Brock in Understanding Moore's Law: ~~four decades~~ of ~~innovation~~:		According to David C. Brock in Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation:

	"By 1960 miniaturization was a fundamental issue for semiconductor technology and its industry. It had become, moreover, a central factor in the semiconductor community's discussions surrounding the new integrated circuits that had been touted in 1959 by Texas Instrucments as the first realization of the "monolothic" circuit ideal." .<ref>Brock, David C. ''Understanding Moore's Law: ~~fource decades~~ of ~~innovation~~. Chemical Heritage Foundation, 2006, p. 26.</ref>		"By 1960 miniaturization was a fundamental issue for semiconductor technology and its industry. It had become, moreover, a central factor in the semiconductor community's discussions surrounding the new integrated circuits that had been touted in 1959 by Texas Instrucments as the first realization of the "monolothic" circuit ideal." .<ref>Brock, David C. ''Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation. Chemical Heritage Foundation, 2006, p. 26.</ref>

	Two ideas are most striking about this statement: The focus on miniaturization and the concept of the "monolothic" circuit ideal.		Two ideas are most striking about this statement: The focus on miniaturization and the concept of the "monolothic" circuit ideal.
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	== References ==		== References ==
	*Brock, David C. (2006). "Understanding Moore's Law: ~~four decades~~ of ~~innovation~~" ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.		*Brock, David C. (2006). "Understanding Moore's Law: Four Decades of Innovation" ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.

	==Notes==		==Notes==

Psamoue: /* Moore's Law */

2012-02-07T03:30:27Z

Moore's Law

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	In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that the number of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor transistors] on a die would double every 24 months. This was a rough predictive statement that has brought Moore acclaim for its reputed accuracy and foresight. This article explores different interpretations of Moore's law, whether it has indeed held true across the years in all significant intervals of time, and whether it will hold true in the future.		In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that the number of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor transistors] on a die would double every 24 months. This was a rough predictive statement that has brought Moore acclaim for its reputed accuracy and foresight. This article explores different interpretations of Moore's law, whether it has indeed held true across the years in all significant intervals of time, and whether it will hold true in the future.

	The rate of growth Moore predicted is truly staggering. The equation form of the law is: T(t)=T0 * 2^(t/2) where T0 represents the initial transistor count in the start year and T(t) the transistor count in t years. Exponential growth is somewhat lost on transistors so we'll switch to counting something more tangible ~~(and one most everyone understands)~~: money. If one could double ~~her~~ wealth every 24 months and started with $1, ~~she~~ would have $5,931,641 in 45 years!		The rate of growth Moore predicted is truly staggering. The equation form of the law is: T(t)=T0 * 2^(t/2) where T0 represents the initial transistor count in the start year and T(t) the transistor count in t years. Exponential growth is somewhat lost on transistors so we'll switch to counting something more tangible: money. If one could double his wealth every 24 months and started with $1, he would have $5,931,641 in 45 years!

	But this is exactly what Intel claims it has done with the transistor density of their processors (and certainly their bottom line). To a large extent, the company has symbiotically harnessed and fueled the public awareness of Moore's law to its advantage as a marketing device, but it is still valuable to study the context of the prediction (the 60s, the advent of semi-conductor technology and miniaturization) and the reasons Moore believed the prediction would hold and whether he was right.		But this is exactly what Intel claims it has done with the transistor density of their processors (and certainly their bottom line). To a large extent, the company has symbiotically harnessed and fueled the public awareness of Moore's law to its advantage as a marketing device, but it is still valuable to study the context of the prediction (the 60s, the advent of semi-conductor technology and miniaturization) and the reasons Moore believed the prediction would hold and whether he was right.

Psamoue: /* Moore's Law */

2012-02-07T03:28:56Z

Moore's Law

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	== Moore's Law ==		== Moore's Law ==

	In 1965, Intel co-founder predicted that the number of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor transistors] on a die would double every 24 months. This was a rough predictive statement that has brought Moore acclaim for its reputed accuracy and foresight. This article explores different interpretations of Moore's law, whether it has indeed held true across the years in all significant intervals of time, and whether it will hold true in the future.		In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore predicted that the number of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor transistors] on a die would double every 24 months. This was a rough predictive statement that has brought Moore acclaim for its reputed accuracy and foresight. This article explores different interpretations of Moore's law, whether it has indeed held true across the years in all significant intervals of time, and whether it will hold true in the future.

	The rate of growth Moore predicted is truly staggering. The equation form of the law is: T(t)=T0 * 2^(t/2) where T0 represents the initial transistor count in the start year and T(t) the transistor count in t years. Exponential growth is somewhat lost on transistors so we'll switch to counting something more tangible (and one most everyone understands): money. If one could double her wealth every 24 months and started with $1, she would have $5,931,641 in 45 years!		The rate of growth Moore predicted is truly staggering. The equation form of the law is: T(t)=T0 * 2^(t/2) where T0 represents the initial transistor count in the start year and T(t) the transistor count in t years. Exponential growth is somewhat lost on transistors so we'll switch to counting something more tangible (and one most everyone understands): money. If one could double her wealth every 24 months and started with $1, she would have $5,931,641 in 45 years!

Psamoue: /* Transistor Counts Over The Years */

2012-02-07T03:25:57Z

Transistor Counts Over The Years

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	If we take 1971 and the Intel 4004 processor as our starting point <ref>		If we take 1971 and the Intel 4004 processor as our starting point <ref>
	[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count "Microprocessors"]		[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count "Microprocessors"]
	</ref>, we see the following growth alongside the predicted growth and the variance and variance percentage next to each		</ref>, we see the following growth alongside the predicted growth and the variance and variance percentage next to each processor.

Psamoue: /* Transistor Counts Over The Years */

2012-02-07T03:25:37Z

Transistor Counts Over The Years

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	If we take 1971 and the Intel 4004 processor as our starting point <ref>		If we take 1971 and the Intel 4004 processor as our starting point <ref>
	[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count "Microprocessors"]		[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count "Microprocessors"]
	</ref>, we see the following growth alongside the predicted growth and the variance and variance percentage next to each ~~(credit for raw data: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count)~~		</ref>, we see the following growth alongside the predicted growth and the variance and variance percentage next to each

Psamoue at 03:22, 7 February 2012

2012-02-07T03:22:23Z

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	The stage was set: smaller was faster and miniaturized, integrated circuits were cheaper. Moore made several contributions to Knowles in his presentation of Moore's Law, including a significant simplification of ideas to transistor counts over time.		The stage was set: smaller was faster and miniaturized, integrated circuits were cheaper. Moore made several contributions to Knowles in his presentation of Moore's Law, including a significant simplification of ideas to transistor counts over time.

	If Moore was right, he wasn't right on the first try. His initial prediction was that transistor counts would double every year. In 1975 he revised this prediction to every two years ~~(credit:~~ http://news.cnet.com/Myths-of-Moores-Law/2010-1071_3-1014887.html).		If Moore was right, he wasn't right on the first try. His initial prediction was that transistor counts would double every year. In 1975 he revised this prediction to every two years <ref>
			[http://news.cnet.com/Myths-of-Moores-Law/2010-1071_3-1014887.html "Kanellos, Michael. Perspective: Myths of Moore's Law"]
			</ref>

	If we take 1971 and the Intel 4004 processor as our starting point <ref>		If we take 1971 and the Intel 4004 processor as our starting point <ref>

Psamoue: /* References */

2012-02-07T03:18:48Z

References

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	== References ==		== References ==
	*Brock, David C. (2006). "Understanding Moore's Law: four decades of innovation" ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.		*Brock, David C. (2006). "Understanding Moore's Law: four decades of innovation" ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.


	~~Understanding Moore's law: four decades of innovation By David C. Brock~~

	==Notes==		==Notes==

Psamoue at 03:18, 7 February 2012

2012-02-07T03:18:27Z

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	The exponential growth predicted by Moore's law is ultimately not sustainable, even as a rough guideline. Even if it were and the above physical limitations are overcome, the resulting transistor count or performance improvement will likely also significantly outrun Moore's predictions since the technology to work with materials at an atomic level will likely lead to completely different architectures Moore could never have predicted.		The exponential growth predicted by Moore's law is ultimately not sustainable, even as a rough guideline. Even if it were and the above physical limitations are overcome, the resulting transistor count or performance improvement will likely also significantly outrun Moore's predictions since the technology to work with materials at an atomic level will likely lead to completely different architectures Moore could never have predicted.

	==References==		== References ==
			*Brock, David C. (2006). "Understanding Moore's Law: four decades of innovation" ''Chemical Heritage Foundation''.


	Understanding Moore's law: four decades of innovation By David C. Brock		Understanding Moore's law: four decades of innovation By David C. Brock