CSC/ECE 506 Spring 2012/1b as - Revision history

Admin: /* Moore's law, past to present */

2014-01-22T03:55:49Z

Moore's law, past to present

← Older revision		Revision as of 03:55, 22 January 2014
Line 18:		Line 18:
	Reviewing data from the inception of Moore's law to the present shows that, consistent to Moore's prediction, the number of transistors on a chip has doubled approximately every 2 years. There are several contributing factors, that had they not been developed, could have slowed or plateaued Moore's law. One of these is the invention Dynamic random access memory ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM DRAM]). This is a type of random access memory that allows for the storage of each bit in a separate capacitor on an integrated circuit. The main advantage of DRAM over its predecessor, SRAM, is that only one transistor and a capacitor are required per bit, compared to four or six transistors with SRAM. Another is most certainly the complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS CMOS]). This allowed a higher density of logic functions on a chip with the added benefit of low power consumption and electrical noise immunity. Lastly was the invention of the integrated circuit itself. Moore's law isn't only responsible for making larger and faster chips, but also smaller, cheaper, and more efficient ones as well.		Reviewing data from the inception of Moore's law to the present shows that, consistent to Moore's prediction, the number of transistors on a chip has doubled approximately every 2 years. There are several contributing factors, that had they not been developed, could have slowed or plateaued Moore's law. One of these is the invention Dynamic random access memory ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM DRAM]). This is a type of random access memory that allows for the storage of each bit in a separate capacitor on an integrated circuit. The main advantage of DRAM over its predecessor, SRAM, is that only one transistor and a capacitor are required per bit, compared to four or six transistors with SRAM. Another is most certainly the complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS CMOS]). This allowed a higher density of logic functions on a chip with the added benefit of low power consumption and electrical noise immunity. Lastly was the invention of the integrated circuit itself. Moore's law isn't only responsible for making larger and faster chips, but also smaller, cheaper, and more efficient ones as well.

	As visible in the examples below and to the right, Moore's law has seemed to hold at an overall constant rate of growth consistent to what Moore predicted. There is some variation from year to year that can be explained by the introduction of new technology, manufacturing or otherwise that helped kick-start Moore's law back on track. This is most evident with the "Dual-Core Itanium 2" processor. It was ahead of ~~it's~~ competitors by a full four years. Looking at the example to the right, we can visibly see a dip in transistor count during 1995-2003. But this is balanced out by an almost equal increase in the following eight years.		As visible in the examples below and to the right, Moore's law has seemed to hold at an overall constant rate of growth consistent to what Moore predicted. There is some variation from year to year that can be explained by the introduction of new technology, manufacturing or otherwise that helped kick-start Moore's law back on track. This is most evident with the "Dual-Core Itanium 2" processor. It was ahead of its competitors by a full four years. Looking at the example to the right, we can visibly see a dip in transistor count during 1995-2003. But this is balanced out by an almost equal increase in the following eight years.

	{\| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center"		{\| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center"

Admin: /* What is Moore's Law? */

2014-01-22T03:53:58Z

What is Moore's Law?

← Older revision		Revision as of 03:53, 22 January 2014
Line 1:		Line 1:
	==What is Moore's Law?==		==What is Moore's Law?==
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to ~~it's~~ current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to its current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

	==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==		==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==

Kdamberk: /* What is Moore's Law? */

2013-02-03T17:20:59Z

What is Moore's Law?

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:20, 3 February 2013
Line 1:		Line 1:
	==What is Moore's Law?==		==What is Moore's Law?==
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	~~Nearly 40 years ago~~, ~~Intel~~ co-founder ~~Gordon Moore forecasted the rapid pace~~ of ~~technology innovation. His prediction, popularly known as “Moore’s Law~~,” states that ~~transistor density~~ on [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated ~~circuits~~] ~~doubles about~~ every two years.<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>.The original prediction ~~presented~~ in ~~[http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf~~ 1965 ~~paper in Electronics Magazine] observed an annual~~ doubling in the ~~number~~ of ~~chip elements called transistors. He refined his view in 1975 with a~~ two~~-year cycle in an [~~http://~~download.intel~~.com/~~museum~~/~~Moores_Law~~/~~Articles-Press_Releases~~/~~Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech~~.~~pdf updated paper]~~. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to it's current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

	==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==		==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==

Kdamberk at 17:16, 3 February 2013

2013-02-03T17:16:50Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:16, 3 February 2013
Line 2:		Line 2:
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	Nearly 40 years ago, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore forecasted the rapid pace of technology innovation. His prediction, popularly known as “Moore’s Law,” states that transistor density on [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] doubles about every two years.<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>.The original prediction presented in [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf 1965 paper in Electronics Magazine] observed an annual doubling in the number of chip elements called transistors. He refined his view in 1975 with a two-year cycle in an [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech.pdf updated paper]. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Nearly 40 years ago, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore forecasted the rapid pace of technology innovation. His prediction, popularly known as “Moore’s Law,” states that transistor density on [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] doubles about every two years.<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>.The original prediction presented in [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf 1965 paper in Electronics Magazine] observed an annual doubling in the number of chip elements called transistors. He refined his view in 1975 with a two-year cycle in an [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech.pdf updated paper]. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

			==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==

			At the heart of Moore's Law is the transistor. Computer chips contain hundreds of millions of transistors embedded on a wafer of silicone. To make these chips, first a “stencil” is made containing the outlines of millions of transistors. The stencil is then placed over a silicone wafer which is sensitive to ultraviolet light. The light penetrates through the gaps of the stencil and exposes the silicon wafer, which is then is bathed in acid, carving the outlines of the circuits and the design of millions of transistors. Since the wafer consists of many conducting and semiconducting layers, the acid cuts into the wafer at different depths and patterns, so one can create circuits of enormous complexity.

			One reason why Moore’s law has relentlessly increased the power of chips is because UV light can be tuned so that its wavelength is smaller and smaller, making it possible to etch increasingly tiny transistors onto silicon wafers. Since UV light has a wavelength as small as 10 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanometre nanometers], the smallest transistor that can be etched is about thirty atoms across.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography</ref> Due to physical limitations, This process cannot go on forever. At some point, it will be physically impossible to etch smaller effective transistors, and Moore’s law as we understand it will finally collapse.

			Currently, estimates predict that around 2020 or soon afterward, Moore’s law will gradually cease to hold true for traditional transistor technology. Transistors will be so small that quantum effects will begin to take over and electrons will "leak" out of the wires.<ref>http://computer.howstuffworks.com/small-cpu2.htm</ref><ref>http://www.monolithic3d.com/2/post/2011/09/is-there-a-fundamental-limit-to-miniaturizing-cmos-transistors1.html</ref> For example, the thinnest layer inside a computer will be about five atoms across. At that size, quantum effects will become dominant and transistors will not function as they currently do without other technological advances.

			===A Common Misconception===
			Moore's Law is often linked to performance improvements as measured in CPU clock speeds. In the 1980's, former Intel executive David House stated that chip performance would double every 18 months.<ref>http://news.cnet.com/Myths-of-Moores-Law/2010-1071_3-1014887.html</ref> This is a consequence of Moore's Law, but it is not what Moore's Law actually claims. In fact, due to heat dissipation issues<ref>http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm</ref><ref>http://techtalk.pcpitstop.com/2007/08/06/cpu-clock-speeds/</ref>, performance as measured in clock speed has remained flat since 2005<ref>http://www.kmeme.com/2010/09/clock-speed-wall.html</ref> while the number of transistors continues to double roughly every 2 years.

	==Moore's law, past to present==		==Moore's law, past to present==
Line 338:		Line 349:
	\|}		\|}

	==~~Why do we need Moore's~~ law?==		==The lesser known second law==
	~~Begun~~ as a ~~simple observation, Moore’s Law has come~~ to ~~represent the amazing and seemingly inexhaustible capacity for exponential growth~~ in ~~electronics.<ref>P. K. Bondyopadhyay, “Moore’s Law governs~~ the ~~silicon revolution~~,~~”Proc. IEEE~~, ~~vol. 86~~, ~~no. 1, pp. 78–81, Jan. 1998~~.~~</ref>~~ The ~~historical regularity and predictability of Moore's Law produce organizing and coordinating effects throughout the semiconductor industry~~ that ~~not only set~~ the ~~pace~~ of ~~innovation, but define the rules and very nature of competition~~. ~~And since semiconductors increasingly comprise a larger portion of electronics components and systems~~, ~~either used directly by consumers or incorporated into end-use items purchased by consumers, the impact of~~ Moore's ~~Law has led users and consumers~~ to ~~come to expect a continuous stream of faster~~, ~~better, and cheaper high-technology products. As integrated circuit costs have decreased, they have made their way into modern products ranging from automobiles to greeting cards~~.<ref>http://~~download~~.~~intel~~.~~com~~/~~museum~~/~~Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/Moores_Law_Backgrounder.pdf~~</ref>		There is another fundamental principle known as Rock's law, this law is a direct consequence to Moore's law in that the cost to produce transistors on a chip may go down, these costs instead flow towards manufacturing, testing, and research and development. The law states that the cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles ever four years. Simply put, in order for Moore's law to hold, Rock's law must also hold.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rock%27s_law</ref>

	~~The drivers for technology~~ development ~~fall into two categories: push~~ and ~~pull. Push drivers are technology enablers~~, ~~those things that make~~ it ~~possible~~ to ~~achieve the technical improvements~~. ~~Moore described the three push drivers as increasing chip area, decreasing feature size,~~ and ~~design cleverness. The economic drivers for Moore’s Law~~ have been extraordinarily compelling. As the dimensions of a transistor shrank, the transistor became smaller, lighter, faster, consumed less power, and in most cases was more reliable. All of these factors make the transistor more desirable for virtually every possible application. But there is more. Historically, the semiconductor industry has been able to manufacture silicon devices at an essentially constant cost per area of processed silicon. Thus, as the devices shrank they enjoyed a shrinking cost per transistor. Each step along the roadmap of Moore’s Law virtually guaranteed economic success. <ref>http://~~commonsenseatheism~~.~~com/wp-content/uploads/2011~~/12/~~Mack-Fifty-Years-of-Moores-Law~~.~~pdf~~</ref>		Due to current economic downturns, Moore's law may see troubling times ahead. Due to the increase investment towards research and development and fabrication cost, it may soon be difficult to meet an adequate return on investment given current production standards. New and innovative methods will have to be developed.<ref>http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.prox.lib.ncsu.edu/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=5227172</ref>

	==Beyond Moore's Law==		==Beyond Moore's Law==

Kdamberk: /* Why do we need Moore's law? */

2013-02-03T17:02:03Z

Why do we need Moore's law?

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:02, 3 February 2013
Line 339:		Line 339:

	==Why do we need Moore's law?==		==Why do we need Moore's law?==
	Begun as a simple observation, Moore’s Law has come to represent the amazing and seemingly inexhaustible capacity for exponential growth in electronics.<ref>P. K. Bondyopadhyay, “Moore’s Law governs the silicon revolution,”Proc. IEEE, vol. 86, no. 1, pp. 78–81, Jan. 1998.</ref> The historical regularity and predictability of Moore's Law produce organizing and coordinating effects throughout the semiconductor industry that not only set the pace of innovation, but define the rules and very nature of competition. And since semiconductors increasingly comprise a larger portion of electronics components and systems, either used directly by consumers or incorporated into end-use items purchased by consumers, the impact of Moore's Law has led users and consumers to come to expect a continuous stream of faster, better, and cheaper high-technology products. As integrated circuit costs have decreased, they have made their way into modern products ranging from automobiles to greeting cards~~[5]~~.<ref>http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/Moores_Law_Backgrounder.pdf</ref>		Begun as a simple observation, Moore’s Law has come to represent the amazing and seemingly inexhaustible capacity for exponential growth in electronics.<ref>P. K. Bondyopadhyay, “Moore’s Law governs the silicon revolution,”Proc. IEEE, vol. 86, no. 1, pp. 78–81, Jan. 1998.</ref> The historical regularity and predictability of Moore's Law produce organizing and coordinating effects throughout the semiconductor industry that not only set the pace of innovation, but define the rules and very nature of competition. And since semiconductors increasingly comprise a larger portion of electronics components and systems, either used directly by consumers or incorporated into end-use items purchased by consumers, the impact of Moore's Law has led users and consumers to come to expect a continuous stream of faster, better, and cheaper high-technology products. As integrated circuit costs have decreased, they have made their way into modern products ranging from automobiles to greeting cards.<ref>http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/Moores_Law_Backgrounder.pdf</ref>

	The drivers for technology development fall into two categories: push and pull. Push drivers are technology enablers, those things that make it possible to achieve the technical improvements. Moore described the three push drivers as increasing chip area, decreasing feature size, and design cleverness. The economic drivers for Moore’s Law have been extraordinarily compelling. As the dimensions of a transistor shrank, the transistor became smaller, lighter, faster, consumed less power, and in most cases was more reliable. All of these factors make the transistor more desirable for virtually every possible application. But there is more. Historically, the semiconductor industry has been able to manufacture silicon devices at an essentially constant cost per area of processed silicon. Thus, as the devices shrank they enjoyed a shrinking cost per transistor. Each step along the roadmap of Moore’s Law virtually guaranteed economic success. <ref>http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Mack-Fifty-Years-of-Moores-Law.pdf</ref>		The drivers for technology development fall into two categories: push and pull. Push drivers are technology enablers, those things that make it possible to achieve the technical improvements. Moore described the three push drivers as increasing chip area, decreasing feature size, and design cleverness. The economic drivers for Moore’s Law have been extraordinarily compelling. As the dimensions of a transistor shrank, the transistor became smaller, lighter, faster, consumed less power, and in most cases was more reliable. All of these factors make the transistor more desirable for virtually every possible application. But there is more. Historically, the semiconductor industry has been able to manufacture silicon devices at an essentially constant cost per area of processed silicon. Thus, as the devices shrank they enjoyed a shrinking cost per transistor. Each step along the roadmap of Moore’s Law virtually guaranteed economic success. <ref>http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Mack-Fifty-Years-of-Moores-Law.pdf</ref>

Kdamberk at 17:01, 3 February 2013

2013-02-03T17:01:25Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 17:01, 3 February 2013
Line 2:		Line 2:
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	Nearly 40 years ago, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore forecasted the rapid pace of technology innovation. His prediction, popularly known as “Moore’s Law,” states that transistor density on [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] doubles about every two years.<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>.The original prediction presented in [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf 1965 paper in Electronics Magazine] observed an annual doubling in the number of chip elements called transistors. He refined his view in 1975 with a two-year cycle in an [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech.pdf updated paper]. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Nearly 40 years ago, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore forecasted the rapid pace of technology innovation. His prediction, popularly known as “Moore’s Law,” states that transistor density on [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] doubles about every two years.<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>.The original prediction presented in [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf 1965 paper in Electronics Magazine] observed an annual doubling in the number of chip elements called transistors. He refined his view in 1975 with a two-year cycle in an [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech.pdf updated paper]. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

	~~==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==~~

	At the heart of Moore's Law is the transistor. Computer chips contain hundreds of millions of transistors embedded on a wafer of silicone. To make these chips, first a “stencil” is made containing the outlines of millions of transistors. The stencil is then placed over a silicone wafer which is sensitive to ultraviolet light. The light penetrates through the gaps of the stencil and exposes the silicon wafer, which is then is bathed in acid, carving the outlines of the circuits and the design of millions of transistors. Since the wafer consists of many conducting and semiconducting layers, the acid cuts into the wafer at different depths and patterns, so one can create circuits of enormous complexity.

	One reason why Moore’s law has relentlessly increased the power of chips is because UV light can be tuned so that its wavelength is smaller and smaller, making it possible to etch increasingly tiny transistors onto silicon wafers. Since UV light has a wavelength as small as 10 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanometre nanometers], the smallest transistor that can be etched is about thirty atoms across.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photolithography</ref> Due to physical limitations, This process cannot go on forever. At some point, it will be physically impossible to etch smaller effective transistors, and Moore’s law as we understand it will finally collapse.

	Currently, estimates predict that around 2020 or soon afterward, Moore’s law will gradually cease to hold true for traditional transistor technology. Transistors will be so small that quantum effects will begin to take over and electrons will "leak" out of the wires.<ref>http://computer.howstuffworks.com/small-cpu2.htm</ref><ref>http://www.monolithic3d.com/2/post/2011/09/is-there-a-fundamental-limit-to-miniaturizing-cmos-transistors1.html</ref> For example, the thinnest layer inside a computer will be about five atoms across. At that size, quantum effects will become dominant and transistors will not function as they currently do without other technological advances.

	~~===A Common Misconception===~~
	Moore's Law is often linked to performance improvements as measured in CPU clock speeds. In the 1980's, former Intel executive David House stated that chip performance would double every 18 months.<ref>http://news.cnet.com/Myths-of-Moores-Law/2010-1071_3-1014887.html</ref> This is a consequence of Moore's Law, but it is not what Moore's Law actually claims. In fact, due to heat dissipation issues<ref>http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm</ref><ref>http://techtalk.pcpitstop.com/2007/08/06/cpu-clock-speeds/</ref>, performance as measured in clock speed has remained flat since 2005<ref>http://www.kmeme.com/2010/09/clock-speed-wall.html</ref> while the number of transistors continues to double roughly every 2 years.

	==Moore's law, past to present==		==Moore's law, past to present==
Line 349:		Line 338:
	\|}		\|}

	==~~The lesser known second~~ law==		==Why do we need Moore's law?==
	~~There is another fundamental principle known~~ as ~~Rock's law~~, ~~this law is a direct consequence~~ to ~~Moore's law~~ in ~~that~~ the ~~cost to produce transistors on a chip may go down~~, ~~these costs instead flow towards manufacturing~~, ~~testing~~, ~~and research and development~~. The ~~law states~~ that the ~~cost~~ of a ~~semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles ever four years. Simply put~~, ~~in order for~~ Moore's ~~law~~ to ~~hold~~, ~~Rock's law must also hold~~.<ref>http://en.~~wikipedia~~.~~org~~/~~wiki~~/~~Rock%27s_law~~</ref>		Begun as a simple observation, Moore’s Law has come to represent the amazing and seemingly inexhaustible capacity for exponential growth in electronics.<ref>P. K. Bondyopadhyay, “Moore’s Law governs the silicon revolution,”Proc. IEEE, vol. 86, no. 1, pp. 78–81, Jan. 1998.</ref> The historical regularity and predictability of Moore's Law produce organizing and coordinating effects throughout the semiconductor industry that not only set the pace of innovation, but define the rules and very nature of competition. And since semiconductors increasingly comprise a larger portion of electronics components and systems, either used directly by consumers or incorporated into end-use items purchased by consumers, the impact of Moore's Law has led users and consumers to come to expect a continuous stream of faster, better, and cheaper high-technology products. As integrated circuit costs have decreased, they have made their way into modern products ranging from automobiles to greeting cards[5].<ref>http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Printed_Materials/Moores_Law_Backgrounder.pdf</ref>

	~~Due~~ to ~~current~~ economic ~~downturns~~, ~~Moore's law may see troubling times ahead~~. ~~Due to~~ the ~~increase investment towards research and development and fabrication cost~~, ~~it may soon be difficult~~ to ~~meet~~ an ~~adequate return on investment given current production standards~~. ~~New and innovative methods will have to be developed~~.<ref>http://~~ieeexplore~~.~~ieee.org.prox.lib.ncsu.edu~~/~~stamp~~/~~stamp~~.~~jsp?tp=&arnumber=5227172~~</ref>		The drivers for technology development fall into two categories: push and pull. Push drivers are technology enablers, those things that make it possible to achieve the technical improvements. Moore described the three push drivers as increasing chip area, decreasing feature size, and design cleverness. The economic drivers for Moore’s Law have been extraordinarily compelling. As the dimensions of a transistor shrank, the transistor became smaller, lighter, faster, consumed less power, and in most cases was more reliable. All of these factors make the transistor more desirable for virtually every possible application. But there is more. Historically, the semiconductor industry has been able to manufacture silicon devices at an essentially constant cost per area of processed silicon. Thus, as the devices shrank they enjoyed a shrinking cost per transistor. Each step along the roadmap of Moore’s Law virtually guaranteed economic success. <ref>http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Mack-Fifty-Years-of-Moores-Law.pdf</ref>

	==Beyond Moore's Law==		==Beyond Moore's Law==

Kdamberk at 16:46, 3 February 2013

2013-02-03T16:46:19Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 16:46, 3 February 2013
Line 1:		Line 1:
	==What is Moore's Law?==		==What is Moore's Law?==
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	~~Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore~~, co-founder of ~~[http://en~~.~~wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel Intel]~~, states that ~~the number of transistors that can be placed~~ on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated ~~circuit~~] ~~will double approximately~~ every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 ~~stated a~~ doubling ~~every 12 months, but~~ in ~~1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed~~ the ~~rate of doubling to it's current state~~ of two ~~years <ref>~~http://~~arstechnica~~.com/~~hardware~~/~~news~~/~~2008~~/~~09/moore~~.~~ars</ref>~~. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Nearly 40 years ago, Intel co-founder Gordon Moore forecasted the rapid pace of technology innovation. His prediction, popularly known as “Moore’s Law,” states that transistor density on [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuits] doubles about every two years.<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>.The original prediction presented in [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf 1965 paper in Electronics Magazine] observed an annual doubling in the number of chip elements called transistors. He refined his view in 1975 with a two-year cycle in an [http://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1975_Speech.pdf updated paper]. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

	==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==		==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==

Kdamberk at 06:44, 2 February 2013

2013-02-02T06:44:48Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:44, 2 February 2013
Line 1:		Line 1:
	==What is Moore's Law?==		==What is Moore's Law?==
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel], states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to it's current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel Intel], states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to it's current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

	==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==		==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==

Kdamberk at 06:43, 2 February 2013

2013-02-02T06:43:25Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 06:43, 2 February 2013
Line 1:		Line 1:
	==What is Moore's Law?==		==What is Moore's Law?==
	[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]		[[Image:TransCount59-75.png\|right]]
	Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to it's current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>		Moore's law, named after Gordon Moore, co-founder of [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel], states that the number of transistors that can be placed on an [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit integrated circuit] will double approximately every two years<ref>http://www.computerhistory.org/semiconductor/timeline/1965-Moore.html</ref>. The original prediction in 1965 stated a doubling every 12 months, but in 1975, after microprocessors were introduced that were less dense he slowed the rate of doubling to it's current state of two years <ref>http://arstechnica.com/hardware/news/2008/09/moore.ars</ref>. Instead of giving an empirical formula predicting the rate of increase, Moore instead used prose, graphs, and images to convey these predictions and observations to the masses. This in some ways increased the staying power of Moore's law, allowing the industry to use it as a benchmark of success and a measurable determination of their success. Virtually all digital devices are in some way fundamentally linked to the growth set in place by Moore's law.<ref>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law</ref>

	==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==		==A quick primer on current manufacturing techniques==

Agalford: /* Moore's law, past to present */

2012-02-07T04:24:21Z

Moore's law, past to present

← Older revision		Revision as of 04:24, 7 February 2012
Line 18:		Line 18:
	Reviewing data from the inception of Moore's law to the present shows that, consistent to Moore's prediction, the number of transistors on a chip has doubled approximately every 2 years. There are several contributing factors, that had they not been developed, could have slowed or plateaued Moore's law. One of these is the invention Dynamic random access memory ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM DRAM]). This is a type of random access memory that allows for the storage of each bit in a separate capacitor on an integrated circuit. The main advantage of DRAM over its predecessor, SRAM, is that only one transistor and a capacitor are required per bit, compared to four or six transistors with SRAM. Another is most certainly the complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS CMOS]). This allowed a higher density of logic functions on a chip with the added benefit of low power consumption and electrical noise immunity. Lastly was the invention of the integrated circuit itself. Moore's law isn't only responsible for making larger and faster chips, but also smaller, cheaper, and more efficient ones as well.		Reviewing data from the inception of Moore's law to the present shows that, consistent to Moore's prediction, the number of transistors on a chip has doubled approximately every 2 years. There are several contributing factors, that had they not been developed, could have slowed or plateaued Moore's law. One of these is the invention Dynamic random access memory ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM DRAM]). This is a type of random access memory that allows for the storage of each bit in a separate capacitor on an integrated circuit. The main advantage of DRAM over its predecessor, SRAM, is that only one transistor and a capacitor are required per bit, compared to four or six transistors with SRAM. Another is most certainly the complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor ([http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CMOS CMOS]). This allowed a higher density of logic functions on a chip with the added benefit of low power consumption and electrical noise immunity. Lastly was the invention of the integrated circuit itself. Moore's law isn't only responsible for making larger and faster chips, but also smaller, cheaper, and more efficient ones as well.

	As visible in the examples below and to the ~~left~~, Moore's law has seemed to hold at an overall constant rate of growth consistent to what Moore predicted. There is some variation from year to year that can be explained by the introduction of new technology, manufacturing or otherwise that helped kick-start Moore's law back on track. This is most evident with the "Dual-Core Itanium 2" processor. It was ahead of it's competitors by a full four years.		As visible in the examples below and to the right, Moore's law has seemed to hold at an overall constant rate of growth consistent to what Moore predicted. There is some variation from year to year that can be explained by the introduction of new technology, manufacturing or otherwise that helped kick-start Moore's law back on track. This is most evident with the "Dual-Core Itanium 2" processor. It was ahead of it's competitors by a full four years. Looking at the example to the right, we can visibly see a dip in transistor count during 1995-2003. But this is balanced out by an almost equal increase in the following eight years.

	{\| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center"		{\| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center"